Monday, March 10, 2008

Where will the sensex top next time?

Having made a prediction of 12500 on the sensex, someone wanted my take on the cycle. I am ready for it and here goes on what's next:

What we are now seeing is damage assessment - whose lost & how much from sub-prime, CDOs, rogue trading (aka SocGen) etc etc. Like we saw last time around when Enron went down, a lot of biggies found it a great time to push out their dirt from the carpets - eg. Parmalat, Arthur Anderson, Swiss Air...... So we can expect more muck being swept out every week. This phase will continue till, I guess, July / August 2008. Following the ongoing & oncoming debacles, will be cries for improved corporate (read: banking) governance, tightening of risk management systems, reporting systems, accountability, triming of bonuses and salaries...... basically-damage repair. Give it another six to eight months. We are now in April 2009, which will also come to be known as the start of a great bull run. This time engineered by the movement of a fraction of funds from the US & Japan markets to the emerging markets of China, India, Brazil, Russia.... Typical behaviour - putting eggs in many safe baskets.

What's that going to do to the sensex? My prediction - by the end of 2009 / spring 2010 - the sensex will be at 32,000!!

Bet???

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